As California battles a severe housing shortage, Proposition 5 has emerged as a potential solution, aiming to lower the approval threshold for affordable housing bonds from two-thirds to 55%. This measure, on the November 2024 ballot, could be a critical tool for local governments to raise funds for housing and public infrastructure projects.

A report released earlier this year identified 433 stalled housing projects in the Bay Area due to a lack of $9.7 billion in public funds. Proposition 5 could help unlock these much-needed resources by making it easier for bonds to gain voter approval, speeding up housing developments across the state.

Napa County Supervisor Belia Ramos emphasizes the importance of funding for such projects, noting that simply zoning for affordable housing is insufficient without the capital to build. She points to the Valle Verde project, a 24-unit affordable housing development in Napa, which took eight years of planning and funding efforts to become a reality.

However, support for Proposition 5 is mixed. A September poll by the Public Policy Institute of California revealed only 49% of likely voters in favor of the measure. Critics like Susan Shelley from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association argue that lowering the threshold could lead to higher property taxes, as local governments may incur more debt from bonds.

An analysis of past bond measures shows that if Proposition 5 had been in effect, 86% of bonds would have passed—significantly higher than the current rate of around 50%. While proponents, including Habitat for Humanity, view the measure as essential for developing affordable housing, opponents worry about the broader impact on property taxes and local debt.

For now, Proposition 5 represents a critical debate in California’s housing future: Is it the key to solving the state’s housing crisis, or could it burden homeowners with higher taxes? Only time—and voters—will tell.